Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,691$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(689 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(57.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,258.5}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 38.2)}}\) (asimptote \(2,258.5\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $107$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(28.3 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{105.8}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 36.6)}}\) (asimptote \(105.8\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $432$ on 2020-06-28
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $31,617$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(1.17 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(68.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,605.9}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 31.4)}}\) (asimptote \(30,605.9\))
Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,962$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(580 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(54.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,919.2}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 37.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,919.2\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $555$ on 2020-06-28
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $240,310$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(6.62 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(58.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{233,231.5}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 43.1)}}\) (asimptote \(233,231.5\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $34,738$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(8.61 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(53.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,706.3}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 45.6)}}\) (asimptote \(33,706.3\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $16,681$ on 2020-06-28
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,548,996$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(3.01 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(35.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,422,082.7}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 62.2)}}\) (asimptote \(2,422,082.7\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $125,803$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(2.05 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{119,452.8}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 50.0)}}\) (asimptote \(119,452.8\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,738,029$ on 2020-06-28
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $312,640$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(4.97 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{302,325.1}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 54.4)}}\) (asimptote \(302,325.1\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $43,634$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(8.53 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41,497.0}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 45.7)}}\) (asimptote \(41,497.0\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $267,642$ on 2020-06-28
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $65,137$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(4.14 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{89,172.8}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 97.8)}}\) (asimptote \(89,172.8\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,280$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(844 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,116.6}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 50.3)}}\) (asimptote \(5,116.6\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $59,857$ on 2020-06-28
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $194,693$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(5.83 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(58.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{182,527.4}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 36.2)}}\) (asimptote \(182,527.4\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,968$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(2.41 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,674.1}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 36.6)}}\) (asimptote \(8,674.1\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $8,068$ on 2020-06-28