Please read the README file in this repository.

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,691$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(689 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(57.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,258.5}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 38.2)}}\) (asimptote \(2,258.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $107$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(28.3 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{105.8}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 36.6)}}\) (asimptote \(105.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $432$ on 2020-06-28

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $31,617$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(1.17 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(68.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,605.9}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 31.4)}}\) (asimptote \(30,605.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,962$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(580 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(54.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,919.2}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 37.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,919.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $555$ on 2020-06-28

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $240,310$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(6.62 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(58.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{233,231.5}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 43.1)}}\) (asimptote \(233,231.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $34,738$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(8.61 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(53.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,706.3}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 45.6)}}\) (asimptote \(33,706.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $16,681$ on 2020-06-28

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,548,996$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(3.01 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(35.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,422,082.7}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 62.2)}}\) (asimptote \(2,422,082.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $125,803$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(2.05 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{119,452.8}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 50.0)}}\) (asimptote \(119,452.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,738,029$ on 2020-06-28

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $312,640$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(4.97 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{302,325.1}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 54.4)}}\) (asimptote \(302,325.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $43,634$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(8.53 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41,497.0}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 45.7)}}\) (asimptote \(41,497.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $267,642$ on 2020-06-28

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $65,137$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(4.14 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{89,172.8}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 97.8)}}\) (asimptote \(89,172.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,280$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(844 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,116.6}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 50.3)}}\) (asimptote \(5,116.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $59,857$ on 2020-06-28

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $194,693$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(5.83 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(58.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{182,527.4}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 36.2)}}\) (asimptote \(182,527.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8,968$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(2.41 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,674.1}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 36.6)}}\) (asimptote \(8,674.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,068$ on 2020-06-28

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

San Marino recovered 100%
Chad recovered 97%
Cuba recovered 95%
Malta recovered 93%
Estonia recovered 93%
Malaysia recovered 92%
Djibouti recovered 90%
Uganda recovered 88%
Italy recovered 85%
Turkey recovered 73%
Singapore recovered 72%
Georgia recovered 66%
Sri Lanka recovered 61%
Hungary recovered 57%
Qatar recovered 56%
Chile recovered 42%
Belarus recovered 37%
United Arab Emirates recovered 36%
Tajikistan recovered 29%
Canada recovered 20%
Poland recovered 18%
Sierra Leone recovered 17%
Iran recovered 17%

San Marino⮸

Population $33,931$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $698$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(190 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(55.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{697.1}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 44.3)}}\) (asimptote \(697.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $42$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(19.3 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(82.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41.5}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 24.6)}}\) (asimptote \(41.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $0$ on 2020-06-28

Chad⮸

Population $16,425,864$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $866$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(169 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{865.0}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 34.0)}}\) (asimptote \(865.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $74$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(29.5 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{71.6}{1 + 10^{-0.073 (t - 14.8)}}\) (asimptote \(71.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $12$ on 2020-06-28

Cuba⮸

Population $11,326,616$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,332$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(621 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(46.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,205.9}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 34.2)}}\) (asimptote \(2,205.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $86$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(28.9 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{83.8}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 28.0)}}\) (asimptote \(83.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $45$ on 2020-06-28

Malta⮸

Population $441,543$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $670$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(184 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(53.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{638.8}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 38.0)}}\) (asimptote \(638.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9$ on 2020-06-28

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $25$ on 2020-06-28